아세안 금융시장 통합: 현황과 통합가능성

Abstract

This paper attempts to review of recent development of ASEAN financial integration and to evaluate it and predict its future aspect. For this purpose, we first examine the historic aspect of ASEAN financial integration such as ASEAN financial service open agreement or ASEAN capital market forum report and currently agreed integration plan. In addition, we study the development stages of ASEAM member countries in terms of its economic size or income level. Finally, we look at the financial market and institutional aspect of ASEAN member countries and the recent development of global financial market. From these analyses, we find several important facts. First, it is true that ASEAN, in general, will enjoy the effect of expanding regional investment and improving the quality of financial service through the financial integration. We think that its long term benefit is too large for ASEAN member states to avoid. Second, as a result, it is certain that ASEAN will corporate further to make its financial market to be integrated in the future. Third, however, despite these benefits and continuing efforts, we expect that it will be very difficult for ASEAN to reach a stage of financial integration as suggested in the Blueprint of ASEAN Economic Community by the year of 2015. The large difference among member states in term of economic and financial development will not allow for them to reach a single goal within a short time. Instead, we expect the following scenario for the integration process will hold. First, ASEAN will reach an agreement on the institutional framework by 2015 and afterwards, slowly the markets will begin to integrate. Second, at the earlier stage, not all but some countries will start the integration process. We expect that the financial market of ASEAN 5 will first be integrated and other 5 will join to it later.