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한국인을 위한 뇌졸중 발생 예측모형 개발Development of a Stroke Prediction Model for Korean

Other Titles
Development of a Stroke Prediction Model for Korean
Authors
이지성박종무박태환이경복이수주조용진한문구배희준이준영
Issue Date
2010
Publisher
대한신경과학회
Keywords
Korean; Stroke; Risk Prediction
Citation
대한신경과학회지, v.28, no.1, pp.13 - 21
Indexed
KCI
Journal Title
대한신경과학회지
Volume
28
Number
1
Start Page
13
End Page
21
URI
https://scholar.korea.ac.kr/handle/2021.sw.korea/117756
ISSN
1225-7044
Abstract
Background: Assessing an individual’s risk of stroke can be a starting point for stroke prevention. The aim of this study was to develop a stroke prediction model that can be applied to the Korean population, using the best available current knowledge. Methods: A sex- and age-specific stroke prediction model that is applicable specifically to Koreans was developed using Gail’s breast cancer prediction model, which is based on competing risk theory. Results: The relative risks for major stroke risk factors, including hypertension, diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, atrial fibrillation, ischemic heart disease, previous stroke, obesity, and smoking status, were obtained from a recent systematic review of stroke risk factors among Koreans. The results were incorporated into the concept of a proportional hazard regression model. For baseline age- and sex-specific hazard rates for stroke, we employed Jee’s 10-year stroke-risk prediction model with its reference categories for predictor variables. Death-certificate data from the Korea National Statistical Office were used to calculate competing risks of stroke in our model. Conclusions: Our prediction model for stroke incidence may be useful for predicting an individual’s risk of stroke based on his/her age, sex, and risk factors. This model will contribute to the development of individualized risk-specific guidelines for the prevention of stroke.
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