Hydrometeorological analysis of northwestern Turkey with links to climate change

Abstract

Precipitation, air temperature, and streamflow data from the European part of Turkey are analysed by means of a set of tests available in the hydrometeorological literature. Structural characteristics such as randomness, jump, trend, and a best-fit probability distribution function are determined. Concluding remarks related to the structural charactecistics of hydrometeorological data state that no significant trend and jump exist in the time series, and the best-fit probability distribution function is the gamma for the streamflow data. Climate change scenarios based on ECHAM4 as well as HadCM2 and HadCM3 global circulation models are developed for the region, and projections are made for the 21st century. Projections made by climate change scenarios signal higher air temperature and lower precipitation in the 21st century and warn for severe extremes, higher maxima and lower minima, both in time and space. Copyright (C) 2007 Royal Meteorological Society.