우크라이나의 EU 가입 추진 과정 분석과 평가

Abstract

Since the national independence in 1991 Ukraine has sought to approach EU to become a full member of EU. However, due to internal upheaval and national discords concerning the membership of EU, Ukraine has encountered much obstacle in the road to EU. Internally, the alternation of pro-European and pro-Russian regimes has blocked establishing a consistent policy towards EU, and international situation, especially EU’s ‘expansion fatigue’ and Russia’s pressure to prevent Ukraine’s EU membership, has made it difficult for Ukraine to become a member of EU. After the collapse of Yanukovich regime, triggered by refusing to sign the Association Agreement in November 2013, the new government of Ukraine announced EU membership as one of the key foreign policy goals. Public support for EU membership in Ukraine has also increased remarkably after the so-called ‘Ukrainian crisis’. Ukraine signed with EU the political Association Agreement in March 2014 and the economic Association Agreement in June 2014, but postponed the formal enactment of economic Agreement until January 2016 under Russia’s pressure to start sanctions on the import of Ukrainian goods. Although a long-term perspective for EU-Ukraine economic integration not only offsets the loss in free trade with Russia, but also brings about more benefits for Ukraine, it is not an easy task for Ukraine to overcome current economic hardship. Recent developments in Europe, such as Dutch referendum against the Association Agreement with Ukraine, the so-called Brexit, Russia-Turkey rapprochement, IS terrorism and refugee problems, also make it difficult to predict the future of EU-Ukraine relations and the European integration itself. As long as Russia holds various means to undermine Ukraine’s efforts to join the EU, a hurried approach to EU is not recommendable for Ukraine. It is desirable for Ukraine to maintain the current relations with the EU at the Association Agreement level and to seek for a better chance to become a full member of EU. While Ukraine slows down the efforts to join NATO, it should concentrate its efforts to accomplish economic integration with EU. For the time being, this type of two-track approach, reminding the so-called ‘Finland model’, dividing political and military union with EU and economic integration, seems to be a best option for Ukraine.