우크라이나 야누코비치 정권의 외교 정책 평가

Abstract

Yanokovich administration in Ukraine was expected to have close and friendly relations with the Russian Federation when Yanukovich was elected as president in 2010. This expectation, however, has turned out to be incorrect after two years of the new administration. Yanukovich administration not only has ruined the cooperative relationship with the West, but also has failed to attain the major goals in the relations with Russia such as lowering gas price and ensuring economic support. These disastrous foreign policy outcomes have had many observers wonder whether Yanukovich administration has the clear vision on its foreign policy and is capable to evaluate the objective diplomatic situation which Ukraine faces now. This study evaluates diplomatic courses of each administration of Ukraine after the independence according to the classification of passive balanced diplomacy, active balanced diplomacy, pro-western diplomacy and pro-Russian diplomacy. Then major developments in diplomatic relations with Russia, Europe and the United States during Yanukovich administration are examined and evaluated. Assuming the major reason for an unsuccessful foreign policy of current regime is attributed to the regressive and authoritarian domestic policy, the paper examines how the regressive domestic policy, especially Tymoshen- ko's imprisonment, has made disastrous impacts on foreign policy. The overall unfavorable international situation surrounding Ukraine, along with the fundamental differences in foreign policy goals between Ukraine and Russia are also evaluated. The capability of conducting a wise and optimal foreign policy of Yanukovich administration, including president's personal ability on diplomacy, is far short in dealing with difficult diplomatic situations which Ukraine encounters now. The geopolitical situation of Ukraine and the relatively short history of diplomacy after the independence show that the optimal model for foreign policy for Ukraine is an active balanced policy, which Kuchma's first administration pursued most successfully. It is certain that the best diplomatic course for Ukraine, as of now, is to strengthen the cooperative relationship with the West and at the same time, utilizing this as a leverage, to hold a strong and sovereign position to deal with Russia. However the first step to this course is not easy to take because of weak positon of Yanukovich regime in domestic politics and lack of will to abandon the authoritarian policy. As long as Yanukovich administration holds the current course and fails to improve the relationship with the West, Ukraine is more likely to fall closely into Moscow's orbit. An active balanced foreign policy can be expected during the next administration for which Tymoshenko, Tigopko or Yatseniuk could be contenders.