A Causal Network-Based Risk Matrix Model Applicable to Shield TBM Tunneling Projects

Abstract

The present study compares and analyzes three risk analysis models that are applicable to shield tunnel boring machine (TBM) tunneling, and thus proposes an improved risk matrix model based on the causal networks applicable to sustainable tunnel projects. The advantages and disadvantages of three risk analysis models are compared, and causal networks are structured by analyzing the causal relationship between risk factors and risk events. Based on the comparison and analysis results, the causal network-based risk matrix model (CN-Matrix model), which complements the disadvantages and exploits the advantages of the three existing models, is proposed in this paper. Furthermore, this study suggests a means of modifying the weighting scores in the estimation of the risk score, which permits the CN-Matrix model to determine the risk level more reasonably. Thus, the improved CN-Matrix model is more reliable and robust compared to the three existing models.