Development and External Validation of Survival Prediction Model for Pancreatic Cancer Using Two Nationwide Database: Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) and Korea Tumor Registry System-Biliary Pancreas (KOTUS-BP)
- Authors
- Kang, Jae Seung; Mok, Lydia; Heo, Jin Seok; Han, In Woong; Shin, Sang Hyun; Yoon, Yoo-Seok; Han, Ho-Seong; Hwang, Dae Wook; Lee, Jae Hoon; Lee, Woo Jung; Park, Sang Jae; Park, Joon Seong; Kim, Yonghoon; Lee, Huisong; Yu, Young-Dong; Do Yang, Jae; Lee, Seung Eun; Park, Il Young; Jeong, Chi-Young; Roh, Younghoon; Kim, Seong-Ryong; Moon, Ju Ik; Lee, Sang Kuon; Kim, Hee Joon; Lee, Seungyeoun; Kim, Hongbeom; Kwon, Wooil; Lim, Chang-Sup; Jang, Jin-Young; Park, Taesung
- Issue Date
- 11월-2021
- Publisher
- EDITORIAL OFFICE GUT & LIVER
- Keywords
- Pancreatic& nbsp; neoplasms; Survival& nbsp; Proognosis
- Citation
- GUT AND LIVER, v.15, no.6, pp.912 - 921
- Indexed
- SCIE
SCOPUS
KCI
- Journal Title
- GUT AND LIVER
- Volume
- 15
- Number
- 6
- Start Page
- 912
- End Page
- 921
- URI
- https://scholar.korea.ac.kr/handle/2021.sw.korea/138781
- DOI
- 10.5009/gnl20306
- ISSN
- 1976-2283
- Abstract
- Background/Aims: Several prediction models for evaluating the prognosis of nonmetastatic resected pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) have been developed, and their perfor-mances were reported to be superior to that of the 8th edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system. We developed a prediction model to evaluate the prognosis of resected PDAC and externally validated it with data from a nationwide Korean database. Methods: Data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database were uti-lized for model development, and data from the Korea Tumor Registry System-Biliary Pancreas (KOTUS-BP) database were used for external validation. Potential candidate variables for model de-velopment were age, sex, histologic differentiation, tumor location, adjuvant chemotherapy, and the AJCC 8th staging system T and N stages. For external validation, the concordance index (C-index) and time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were evaluated. Results: Between 2004 and 2016, data from 9,624 patients were utilized for model develop-ment, and data from 3,282 patients were used for external validation. In the multivariate Cox proportional hazard model, age, sex, tumor location, T and N stages, histologic differentiation, and adjuvant chemotherapy were independent prognostic factors for resected PDAC. After an exhaustive search and 10-fold cross validation, the best model was finally developed, which included all prognostic variables. The C-index, 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, and 5-year time-dependent AUCs were 0.628, 0.650, 0.665, 0.675, and 0.686, respectively. Conclusions: The survival prediction model for resected PDAC could provide quantitative sur-vival probabilities with reliable performance. External validation studies with other nationwide databases are needed to evaluate the performance of this model. (Gut Liver, Published online May 7, 2021)
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