Ambient PM Concentrations as a Precursor of Emergency Visits for Respiratory Complaints: Roles of Deep Learning and Multi-Point Real-Time Monitoring

Abstract

Despite ample evidence that high levels of particulate matter (PM) are associated with increased emergency visits related to respiratory diseases, little has been understood about how prediction processes could be improved by incorporating real-time data from multipoint monitoring stations. While previous studies use traditional statistical models, this study explored the feasibility of deep learning algorithms to improve the accuracy of predicting daily emergency hospital visits by tracking their spatiotemporal association with PM concentrations. We compared the predictive accuracy of the models based on PM datasets collected between 1 December 2019 and 31 December 2021 from a single but more accurate air monitoring station in each district (Air Korea) and multiple but less accurate monitoring sites (Korea Testing & Research Institute; KTR) within Guro District in Seoul, South Korea. We used MLP (multilayer perceptron) to integrate PM data from multiple locations and then LSTM (long short-term memory) models to incorporate the intrinsic temporal PM trends into the learning process. The results reveal evidence that predictive accuracy is improved from 1.67 to 0.79 in RMSE when spatial variations of air pollutants from multi-point stations are incorporated in the algorithm as a 9-day time window. The findings suggest guidelines on how environmental and health policymakers can arrange limited resources for emergency care and design ambient air monitoring and prevention strategies.