시점 간 순사육두수 변화를 고려한 한우의 사육두수 전망 모형 분석

Abstract

Decision-making on the number of slaughtered heads considering the change in the number of breeding heads is an important issue for Hanwoo-breeding farmers. While previous studies treat breeding heads of Hanwoo in terms of supply function, this study differs in the way that it develops a model for breeding heads that incorporate both supply and demand sides. The number of cattle raised is forecasted using the estimates of slaughtered heads, the estimates of breeding cattle under one year of age, and the actual number of breeding cattle in the previous period. The result of the precision of the model for estimating the number of cattle raised indicates that the accuracy of the model is very high.