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Quantitative Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic Containment PoliciesQuantitative Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic Containment Policies

Other Titles
Quantitative Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic Containment Policies
Authors
김범수김선빈박상수
Issue Date
2022
Publisher
한국경제연구학회
Keywords
extended SEIR model; COVID-19; asymptomatic cases
Citation
Korea and the World Economy, v.23, no.2, pp 77 - 89
Pages
13
Journal Title
Korea and the World Economy
Volume
23
Number
2
Start Page
77
End Page
89
URI
https://scholar.korea.ac.kr/handle/2021.sw.korea/144136
Abstract
Countries are implementing containment policies to fight the coronavirus 2019 pandemic. We extend the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model to include asymptomatic cases, which account for around 20%. We consider the cumulative confirmed and death cases in Italy and South Korea for our model estimation. The data for Italy, collated up to March 14, 2020, are not affected by any containment policy, whereas the data for South Korea collated up to the end of April 2020 reflect four containment policies: social distancing, preemptive quarantine, testing and quarantine of symptomatic or asymptomatic patients. Our policy experiments show that the testing and quarantine of symptomatic patients are very effective to contain, but not enough to extinguish, the epidemic. Thus, testing and quarantine should include the asymptomatic cases as well.
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