Health Effects of Air-Quality Regulations in Seoul Metropolitan Area: Applying Synthetic Control Method to Controlled-Interrupted Time-Series Analysis

Abstract

Despite enormous investment in air-quality regulations, there are only a few studies about the health effects of the air-quality regulations. By applying synthetic control methods to controlled-interrupted time-series analysis, this study aimed to test whether air-quality regulations implemented in Seoul metropolitan area since 2005 had reduced cardiovascular mortality rate in Seoul and Incheon. Each synthetic control for Seoul and Incheon was constructed to predict the counterfactual cardiovascular mortality rate through synthetic control methods. By using a synthetic control as a control group in controlled-interrupted time-series analysis, we tested whether the air-quality regulations had changed the trend of cardiovascular mortality rate in Seoul and Incheon after the intervention. The results showed a significant slope change in cardiovascular mortality rate in Seoul (coefficient: -0.001, 95% confidence interval (CI): -0.0015, -0.0004) and Incheon (coefficient: -0.0006, 95% CI: -0.0012, 0). This study suggests additional evidence that air-quality regulations implemented in the Seoul metropolitan areas since 2005 had beneficial effects on cardiovascular mortality rate in Seoul and Incheon.