파키스탄의 경제성장과 공업의 역할

Abstract

Pakistan, even though she is one of the fast growing countries, is still in the early stage of economic development. Therefore inter-sectoral linkage analysis is timely important in order to engender the higher level of economic growth. This paper explores inter sectoral linkages among the agriculture, industry, service, and the export of Pakistan and identifies the role of industry sector in the economic growth. VAR model based on Johansen co-integration method is adopted along with variance decomposition analysis in order to examine inter sectoral linkages of Pakistan, using data from 1961 to 2017. It was shown that the previous year agriculture sector value-added makes links to the current year agriculture value-added in a negative way. The current year agriculture, industry, and service value-added are affected positively by the previous year industry sector. The previous year service sector does not make any significant impact on other sectors. The previous year export affects the current year industry value-added in a positive way but the current year service value-added in a negative way. Therefore, during the time period from 1961 to 2017, industry sector contributed most significantly to the Pakistan economic growth.