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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Authors
Murray, Christopher J. L.Callender, Charlton S. K. H.Kulikoff, Xie RachelSrinivasan, VinayAbate, DeguAbate, Kalkidan HassenAbay, Solomon M.Abbasi, NooshinAbbastabar, HedayatAbdela, JentalAbdelalim, AhmedAbdel-Rahman, OmarAbdi, AlirezaAbdoli, NasrinAbdollahpour, IbrahimAbdulkader, Rizwan SuliankatchiAbebe, Haftom TemesgenAbebe, MollaAbebe, ZegeyeAbebo, Teshome AbukaAbejie, Ayenew NegesseAboyans, VictorAbraha, Haftom NiguseAbreu, Daisy Maria XavierAbrham, Aklilu RobaAbu-Raddad, Laith JamalAbu-Rmeileh, Niveen M. E.Accrombessi, Manfred Mario KolkouAcharya, PawanAdamu, Abdu A.Adebayo, Oladimeji M.Adedeji, Isaac AkinkunmiAdekanmbi, VictorAdetokunboh, Olatunji O.Adhena, Beyene MeressaAdhikari, Tara BallavAdib, Mina C.Adou, Arsene KouablanAdsuar, Jose C.Afarideh, MohsenAfshin, AshkanAgarwal, GinaAgesa, Kareha M.Aghayan, Sargis AghasiAgrawal, SutapaAhmadi, AlirezaAhmadi, MehdiAhmed, Muktar BeshirAhmed, SayemAichour, Amani NidhalAichour, IbtihelAichour, Miloud Taki EddineAkanda, Ali S.Akbari, Mohammad EsmaeilAkibu, MohammedAkinyemi, Rufus OlusolaAkinyemiju, TomiAkseer, NadiaAlahdab, FaresAl-Aly, ZiyadAlam, KhurshidAlebel, AnimutAleman, Alicia V.Alene, Kefyalew AddisAl-Eyadhy, AymanAli, RaghibAlijanzadeh, MehranAlizadeh-Navaei, RezaAljunid, Syed MohamedAlkerwi, Ala'aAlla, FrancoisAllebeck, PeterAlmasi, AliAlonso, JordiAl-Raddadi, Rajaa M.Alsharif, UbaiAltirkawi, KhalidAlvis-Guzman, NelsonAmare, Azmeraw T.Ammar, WalidAnber, Nahla FlamedAndrei, Catalina LiliattaAndroudi, SofiaAnimut, Megbant DelialkieAnsari, HosseinAnsha, Mustafa GeletoAntonio, Carl Abelardo T.Appiah, Seth Christopher YawAremu, OlatundeAreri, Habtamu AberaArian, NicholasArnlov, JohanArtaman, AlAryal, Krishna K.Asayesh, HamidAsfaw, Ephrem TsegayAsgedom, Solomon WeldegebrealAssadi, RezaAtey, Tesfay Mehari MehariAfique, SulemanAtteraya, Madhu SudhanAusloos, MarcelAvokpaho, Euripide F. C. A.Awasthi, AshishQuintanilla, Beatriz Paulina AyalaAyele, YohanesAyer, RakeshAyuk, Tambe B.Azzopardi, Peter S.Babalola, Tesleem KayodeBabazadeh, ArefehRadali, HamidBadawi, AlaaBali, Ayele GeletoRanach, MaciejBarker-Collo, Suzanne LynBarnighausen, Till WinfriedBarrero, Lope H.Basaleem, HudaBassat, QuiqueBasu, ArindamBaune, Bernhard T.Baynes, Habtamu WondifrawBeghi, EttoreBehzadifar, MasoudBelazadifar, MeysamBekele, Bayu BegashawBelachew, Abate BekeleBelay, Aregawi GebreyesusBelay, EzraBelay, Saba AbrahantBelay, Yihalem AbebeBell, Michelle L.Bello, Aminu K.Bennett, Derrick A.Bensenor, Isabela M.Bergeron, GillesBerhane, AdugnawBerman, Adam E.Bernabe, EduardoBernstein, Robert S.Bertolacci, Gregory J.Beuran, MirceaBhattarai, SurajBhaumik, SoumyadeepBhutia, Zulltiqar A.Biadgo, BeleteBijani, AliRikbov, BorisBililign, NigusBin Sayeed, Muhammad ShandaatBirlik, Sait MentesBirungi, CharlesDiswas, TuhinBizuneh, HailemichaelBleyer, ArchieBasara, Berrak BoraBosetti, CristinaBoufous, SoufianeBrady, Oliver J.Bragazzi, Nicola LuigiBrainin, MichaelBrazinova, AlexandraBreitborde, Nicholas J. K.Brenner, HermannBrewer, Jetty D.Briant, Paul SvitilBritton, GabrielleBurstein, RoyBusse, ReinhardRiff, Zahid A.Cahuana-Hurtado, LuceroCampos-Nonato, Ismael R.Rincon, Julio Cesar CampuzanoCano, JorgeCar, MateCardenas, RosarioCarrero, Juan J.Carvalho, FelixCastaneda-Orjuela, Carlos A.Rivas, Jacqueline CastilloCastro, FranzCatala-Lopez, FerranCavin, AlanurCerin, EsterChalek, JulianChang, Hsing-YiChang, Jung-ChenChattopadhyay, AparajitaChaturvedi, PankajChiang, Peggy Pei-ChiaChin, Ken LeeChisumpa, Vesper HichilombweChitheer, AbdulaalChoi, Jee-Young J.Chowdhury, RajivChristopher, Devasahayam J.Cicuttini, Flavia M.Ciobanu, Liliana G.Cirillo, MassimoClaro, Rafael M.Collado-Mateo, DanielConstantin, Maria-MagdalenaConti, SaraCooper, CyrusCooper, Leslie TrumbullCornaby, LeslieCortesi, Paolo AngeloCortinovis, MonicaCosta, MeganCromwell, Elizabeth A.Crowe, Christopher StephenCukelj, PetraCunningham, MatthewDaba, Alemneh KabetaDachew, Berihun AssefaDandona, LalitDandona, RakhiDargan, Paul I.Daryani, AhmadDas Gupta, Raja T.Das Neves, JoseDasa, Tamirat TesfayeDash, Aditya PrasadWeaver, Nicole DavisDavitoiu, Dragos VirgilDavletov, KairatDe Leo, DiegoDe Neve, Jan WalterDegefa, Meaza GinnaDegenhardt, LouisaDegfie, Tizta TilahunDeiparine, SelinaDemoz, Gebre TeklemariamDemtsu, EakinDenova-Gutierrez, EdgarDeribe, KebedeDervenis, NikolaosDes Jarlais, Don C.Dessie, Getenet AyalewDharniaratne, Samath D.Dhimal, MeghnathDicker, DanielDing, Eric L.Dinsa, Ginnaye DeyeDjalalinia, ShirinHuyen Phuc DoDokova, KlaraDoku, David TeyeDolan, Kate A.Doyle, Kerrie E.Driscoll, Tint R.Dubey, ManishaDubljanin, EleonoraDuken, Eyasu NeffDuraes, Andre R.Ebrahimpour, SoheilEdvardsson, DavidEl Bcheraoui, CharbelEl-Khatib, ZiadElyazar, Iqbal RfEnayati, AhmadaliEndries, Aman YesufErmakov, Sergey PetrovichEshrati, BabakEskandarieh, ShararehEsmaeili, RezaEsteghamati, AlirezaEsteghamati, SadafEstep, KaraFakhim, HamedFarag, TamerFaramarzi, MahbobehFareed, MohammadFarinha, Carla Sofia E. SaFaro, AndreFarvid, Maryam S.Farzadfar, FarshadFarzaei, Mohammad HoseinFay, Kairsten A.Fazeli, Mir SohailFeigin, Valery I.Feigl, Andrea B.Feizy, FaribaFenny, Ama P.Fentahun, NetsanetFereshtehnejad, Seyed-MohammadFemandes, EduardaFeyissa, Garumma ToluFilip, IrinaFinegold, SamuelFischer, FlorianFlor, Luisa SorioFoigt, Nataliya A.Foreman, Kyle J.Fornari, CarlaFurst, ThomasFukumoto, TakeshiFuller, John E.Fullman, NancyGakidou, EmmanuelaGallus, SilvanoGamkrelidze, AmiranGanji, MorsalehGankpe, Fortune GbetohoGarcia, Gregory N.Garcia-Gordillo, Miguel A.Gebre, Abadi KahsuGebre, TeshomeGebregergs, Gebremedhin BerheGebrehiwot, Tsegaye TeweldeGebremedhin, Amanttel TesfayGelano, Tilayie FetoGelaw, Yalemzewod AssefaGeleijnse, 'Johanna N.Genova-Maleras, RicardGething, PeterGezae, Kebede EmbayeGhadami, Mohammad RasoulGhadimi, RezaGhadiri, KeyghobadFalavarjani, Khalil GhasemiGhasemi-Kasman, MaryamGhiasvand, HesamGhimire, MamataGhoshal, Aloke GopalGill, Paramjit SinghGill, Tiffany K.Giussani, GiorgiaGnedovskaya, Elena V.Goli, SrinivasGomez, Ricardo SantiagoGomez-Dantes, HectorGona, Philimon N.Goodridge, AmadorGopalani, Sameer ValiGoulart, Alessandra C.Niegia, BarbaraGoulart, GarciaGrada, AymanGrosso, GiuseppeGugnani, Harish Chander C.Guo, JingwenGuo, YumingGupta, Prakash C.Gupta, RahulGupta, RajeevGupta, TanushHaagsma, Juanita A.Hachinski, VladimirHafezi-Nejad, NimaHagos, Tekleberhan B.Hailegiyorgis, Tewodros TesfaHailu, Gessessew BugssaHaj-Mirzaian, ArvinHaj-Mirzaian, AryaHamadeh, Randah R.Hamidi, SarverHandal, Alexis J.Hankey, Graeme J.Hao, YuantaoHarb, Hilda I.Haririan, HamidrezaHaro, Josep MariaHasan, MehediHassankhani, HadiHassen, Hamid YimamHavrnoeller, RasmusHay, Simon I.He, YihuaHedayatizadeh-Omran, AkbarHegazy, Mohamed I.Heibati, BehzadHeidari, BehnamHendrie, DeliaHenok, AndualemHenry, Nathaniel J.Herteliu, ClaudiuHeydarpour, FatemehHibstu, Desalegn T.Hole, Michael K.Rad, Enayatollah HomaieHoogar, PraveenHosgood, H. DeanHosseini, Seyed MostafaChavoshi, Meimanat M. 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Issue Date
10-11월-2018
Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
Citation
LANCET, v.392, no.10159, pp.1995 - 2051
Indexed
SCIE
SCOPUS
Journal Title
LANCET
Volume
392
Number
10159
Start Page
1995
End Page
2051
URI
https://scholar.korea.ac.kr/handle/2021.sw.korea/71861
DOI
10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32278-5
ISSN
0140-6736
Abstract
Background Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-cotnponent method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49.4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46.4-52.0). The TFR decreased from 4.7 livebirths (4.5-4.9) to 2.4 livebirths (2.2-2.5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10-19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34-40) to 22 livebirths (19-24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83.8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197-2% (193.3-200.8) since 1950, from 2.6 billion (2.5-2.6) to 7.6 billion (7.4-7.9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2.0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1.1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2.5% in 1963 to O7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2.7%. The global average age increased from 26.6 years in 1950 to 32.1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15-64 years) increased from 59.9% to 65.3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1.0 livebirths (95% UI 0. 9-1.2) in Cyprus to a high of 7.1 livebirths (6.8-7.4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0.08 livebirths (0.07-0.09) in South Korea to 2.4 livebirths (2.2-2.6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (I F030; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0.3 livebirths (0.3-0-4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3.1 livebirths (3.0-3.2) in Niger. TF030 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017.33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2.0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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의과대학 (의학과)
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