Simulation modeling for a resilience improvement plan for natural disasters in a coastal area

Abstract

Floods are threats to ecosystems that are caused by natural disasters such as typhoons and heavy rain, and to respond to these threats, resilience needs to be improved. In this study, the response of the social-ecological system of Haeundae-gu (Busan, Republic of Korea) to disasters is analyzed by using a causal loop diagram, and a resilience improvement plan is presented by simulating the disaster resilience using green infrastructure through the System Resilience Dynamics Model. First, the resilience values are highest when green infrastructure is applied at the maximum applicable ratio (30%) compared with no application. Second, in the public and private areas of Haeundae-gu, resilience according to green roof scenario was higher until approximately 8 h after the beginning of rainfall, but then the resilience according to infiltration storage facility scenario was higher. In the transportation and industrial areas, the overall resilience according to infiltration storage facility scenario was higher than the resilience according to porous pavement scenario. This study demonstrates that a resilience improvement plan based on simulation can support decision making to respond to disasters such as typhoons. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.