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Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Authors
Fullman, NancyBarber, Ryan M.Abajobir, Amanuel AlemuAbate, Kalkidan HassenAbbafati, CristianaAbbas, Kaja M.Abd-Allah, FoadAbdulle, Abdishakur M.Abera, Semaw FeredeAboyans, VictorAbu-Raddad, Laith J.Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M. E.Adedeji, Isaac AkinkunmiAdetokunboh, OlatunjiAfshin, AshkanAgrawal, AnuragAgrawal, SutapaKiadaliri, Aliasghar AhmadAhmadieh, HamidAhmed, Muktar BeshirAichour, Amani NidhalAichour, IbtihelAichour, Miloud Taki EddineAiyar, SnehaAkinyemi, Rufus OlusolaAkseer, NadiaAl-Aly, ZiyadAlam, KhurshidAlam, NooreAlasfoor, DeenaAlene, Kefyalew AddisAlizadeh-Navaei, RezaAlkerwi, Ala'aAlla, FrancoisAllebeck, PeterAllen, ChristineAl-Raddadi, RajaaAlsharif, UbaiAltirkawi, Khalid A.Alvis-Guzman, NelsonAmare, Azmeraw T.Amini, ErfanAmmar, WalidAntonio, Carl Abelardo T.Ansari, HosseinAnwari, PalwashaArora, MeghaArtaman, AlAryal, Krishna KumarAsayesh, HamidAsgedom, Solomon WeldegebrealAssadi, RezaAtey, Tesfay MehariAtre, Sachin R.Avila-Burgos, LeticiaAvokpaho, Euripide Frinel G. ArthurAwasthi, AshishAzzopardi, PeterBacha, UmarBadawi, AlaaBalakrishnan, KalpanaBannick, Marlena S.Barac, AleksandraBarker-Collo, Suzanne L.Barnighausen, TillBarrero, Lope H.Basu, SanjayBattle, Katherine E.Baune, Bernhard T.Beardsley, JustinBedi, NeerajBejot, YannickBell, Michelle L.Bennett, Derrick A.Bennett, James R.Bensenor, Isabela M.Berhane, AdugnawBerhe, Derbew FikaduBernabe, EduardoBetsu, Balem DemtsuBeuran, MirceaBeyene, Addisu ShunuBhansali, AnilBhatt, SamirBhutta, Zulfiqar A.Bikbov, BorisBilal, Arebu I.Birungi, CharlesBiryukov, StanBizuayehu, Habtamu MellieBlosser, Christopher D.Boneya, Dube JaraBose, DipanBou-Orm, Ibrahim R.Brauer, MichaelBreitborde, Nicholas J. K.Brugha, Traolach S.Bulto, Lemma Negesa BultoButt, Zahid A.Cahuana-Hurtado, LuceroCameron, EwanCesar Campuzano, JulioCardenas, RosarioCarrero, Juan JesusCarter, AustinCasey, Daniel C.Castaneda-Orjuela, Carlos A.Castillo Rivas, JacquelineEstanislao Castro, RubenCatala-Lopez, FerranCercy, KellyChang, Hsing-YiChang, Jung-ChenCharlson, Fiona J.Chew, AdrienneChisumpa, Vesper HichilombweChitheer, Abdulaal A.Christensen, HanneChristopher, Devasahayam JesudasCirillo, MassimoCooper, CyrusCriqui, Michael H.Cromwell, Elizabeth A.Crump, John A.Dandona, LalitDandona, RakhiDargan, Paul I.das Neves, JoseDavitoiu, Dragos V.de Courten, BarboraDe Steur, HansDegenhardt, LouisaDeiparine, SelinaDeribe, Kebededeveber, Gabrielle A.Ding, Eric L.Djalalinia, ShirinHuyen Phuc DoDokova, KlaraDoku, David TeyeDorsey, E. RayDriscoll, Tim R.Dubey, ManishaDuncan, Bruce BartholowEbel, Beth E.Ebrahimi, HedyehEl-Khatib, Ziad ZiadEnayati, AhmadaliEndries, Aman YesufErmakov, Sergey PetrovichErskine, Holly E.Eshrati, BabakEskandarieh, ShararehEsteghamati, AlirezaEstep, KaraFaraon, Emerito Jose AquinoE Sa Farinha, Carla SofiaFaro, AndreFarzadfar, FarshadFazeli, Mir SohailFeigin, Valery L.Feigl, Andrea B.Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-MohammadFernandes, Joao C.Ferrari, Alize J.Feyissa, Tesfaye RegassaFilip, IrinaFischer, FlorianFitzmaurice, ChristinaFlaxman, Abraham D.Foigt, NataliyaForeman, Kyle J.Frank, TahviFranklin, Richard C.Friedman, JosephFrostad, Joseph J.Furst, ThomasFurtado, Joao M.Gakidou, EmmanuelaGarcia-Basteiro, Alberto L.Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye TeweldeGeleijnse, Johanna M.Geleto, AyeleGemechu, Bikila LenchaGething, Peter W.Gibney, Katherine B.Gill, Paramjit SinghGillum, Richard F.Giref, Ababi ZergawGishu, Melkamu DedefoGiussani, GiorgiaGlenn, Scott D.Godwin, William W.Goldberg, Ellen M.Gona, Philimon N.Goodridge, AmadorGopalani, Sameer ValiGoryakin, YevgeniyGriswold, MaxGugnani, Harish ChanderGupta, RajeevGupta, TanushGupta, VipinHafezi-Nejad, NimaBidgoli, Hassan HaghparastHailu, Gessessew BugssaHamadeh, Randah RibhiHammami, MouhanadHankey, Graeme J.Harb, Hilda L.Hareri, Habtamu AberaHassanvand, Mohammad SadeghHavmoeller, RasmusHawley, CaitlinHay, Simon I.He, JiaweiHendrie, DeliaHenry, Nathaniel J.Beatriz Heredia-Pi, IleanaHoek, Hans W.Holmberg, MollieHorita, NobuyukiHosgood, H. DeanHostiuc, SorinHoy, Damian G.Hsairi, MohamedHtet, Aung SoeHuang, HsiangHuang, John J.Huynh, ChantalIburg, Kim MoesgaardIkeda, ChadInoue, ManamiIrvine, Caleb Mackay SalpeterJacobsen, Kathryn H.Jahanmehr, NaderJakovljevic, Mihajlo B.Jauregui, AlejandraJavanbakht, MehdiJeemon, PanniyammakalJha, VivekanandJohn, DennyJohnson, Catherine O.Johnson, Sarah CharlotteJonas, Jost B.Jurisson, MikkKabir, ZubairKadel, RajendraKahsay, AmahaKamal, RitulKarch, AndreKarema, Corine KakiziKasaeian, AmirKasaeian, AmirKassebaum, Nicholas J.Kastor, AnshulKatikireddi, Srinivasa VittalKawakami, NoritoKeiyoro, Peter NjengaKelbore, Sefonias GetachewKemmer, LauraKengne, Andre PascalKesavachandran, Chandrasekharan NairKhader, Yousef SalehKhalil, Ibrahim A.Khan, Ejaz AhmadKhang, Young-HoKhosravi, ArdeshirKhubchandani, JagdishKieling, ChristianKim, DanielKim, Jun Y.Kim, Yun JinKimokoti, Ruth W.Kinfu, YohannesKisa, AdnanKissimova-Skarbek, Katarzyna A.Kivimaki, MikaKokubo, YoshihiroKopec, Jacek A.Kosen, SoewartaKoul, Parvaiz A.Koyanagi, AiKravchenko, MichaelKrohn, Kristopher J.Defo, Barthelemy KuateBicer, Burcu KucukKulikoff, Xie RachelKumar, G. AnilKutz, Michael J.Kyu, Hmwe H.Lal, Dharmesh KumarLalloo, RatilalLansingh, Van C.Larsson, AndersLazarus, Jeffrey VictorLee, Paul H.Leigh, JamesLeung, JanniLeung, RickyLevi, MiriamLi, YongmeiLiben, Misgan LegesseLinn, ShaiLiu, Patrick Y.Liu, ShiweiLodha, RakeshLooker, Katharine J.Lopez, Alan D.Lorkowski, StefanLotufo, Paulo A.Lozano, RafaelLucas, Timothy C. D.Mackay, Mark T.Maddison, Emilie R.Abd el Razek, Hassan MagdyAbd el Razek, Mohammed MagdyMajdan, MarekMajdzadeh, RezaMajeed, AzeemMalekzadeh, RezaMalhotra, RajeshMalta, Deborah CarvalhoMamun, Abdullah A.Manguerra, HelenaMantovani, Lorenzo G.Manyazewal, TsegahunMapoma, Chabila C.Marks, Guy B.Martin, Randall V.Martins-Melo, Francisco RogerlandioMartopullo, IraMathur, Manu RajMazidi, MohsenMcAlinden, ColmMcGaughey, MadelineMcGrath, John J.Mckee, MartinMehata, SureshMehndiratta, Man MohanMeier, ToniMeles, Kidanu GebremariamMemish, Ziad A.Mendoza, WalterMengesha, Melkamu MeridMengistie, Mubarek AberaMensah, George A.Mensink, Gert B. M.Mereta, Seid TikuMeretoja, AtteMeretoja, Tuomo J.Mezgebe, Haftay BerhaneMicha, RenataMillear, AnoushkaMiller, Ted R.Minnig, ShawnMirarefin, MojdeMirrakhimov, Erkin M.Misganaw, AwokeMishra, Shiva RajMitchell, Philip B.Mohammad, Karzan AbdulmuhsinMohammed, Kedir EndrisMohammed, ShafiuMohan, Murali B. V.Mokdad, Ali H.Mollenkopf, Sarah K.Monasta, LorenzoMontanez Hernandez, Julio CesarMontico, MarcellaMoradi-Lakeh, MaziarMoraga, PaulaMorawska, LidiaMorrison, Shane D.Moses, Mark W.Mountjoy-Venning, CliffMueller, Ulrich O.Muller, KateMurthy, Gudlavalleti Venkata SatyanarayanaMusa, Kamarul ImranNaghavi, MohsenNaheed, AliyaNaidoo, Kovin S.Nangia, VinayNatarajan, GopalakrishnanNegoi, IonutNegoi, Ruxandra IrinaCuong Tat NguyenGrant NguyenMinh NguyenQuyen Le NguyenTrang Huyen NguyenNichols, EmmaNingrum, Dina Nur AnggrainiNomura, MarikaVuong Minh NongNorheim, Ole F.Noubiap, Jean Jacques N.Obermeyer, Carla MakhloufOgbo, Felix AkpojeneOh, In-HwanOladimeji, OlanrewajuOlagunju, Andrew ToyinOlagunju, Tinuke OluwasefunmiOlivares, Pedro R.Olsen, Helen E.Olusanya, Bolajoko OlubukunolaOlusanya, Jacob OlusegunOng, KanyinOren, EyalOrtiz, AlbertoOwolabi, Mayowa O.Pa, MaheshPana, AdrianPanda, Basant KumarPanda-Jonas, SonghomitraPapachristou, ChristinaPark, Eun-KeePatton, George C.Paulson, KatherinePereira, David M.Perico, David NorbertoPesudovs, KonradPetzold, MaxPhillips, Michael RobertPigott, David M.Pillay, Julian DavidPinho, ChristinePiradov, Michael A.Pishgar, FarhadPoulton, Richie G.Pourmalek, FarshadQorbani, MostafaRadfar, AmirRafay, AnwarRao, Puja C.Rahimi-Movaghar, VafaRahman, MahfuzarRahman, Mohammad Hifz UrRahman, Muhammad AzizRai, Rajesh KumarRajsic, SasaRam, UshaRanabhat, Chhabi LalRawaf, SalmanReidy, PatrickReiner, Robert C., Jr.Reinig, NikolasReitsma, Marissa B.Remuzzi, GiuseppeRenzaho, Andre M. N.Resnikoff, SergeRezaei, SatarRios Blancas, Maria JesusRoba, Kedir TejiRojas-Rueda, DavidRokni, Mohammad BagherRoshandel, GholamrezaRoth, Gregory A.Roy, AmbujRubagotti, EnricoSadat, NafisSafdarian, MahdiSafi, SareSafiri, SaeidSagar, RajeshSalama, JosephSalomon, Joshua A.Samy, Abdallah M.Ramon Sanabria, JuanSantomauro, DamianSantos, Itamar S.Santos, Joao VascoMilicevic, Milena M. SantricSartorius, BennSatpathy, MaheswarSawhney, MonikaSaxena, SoniaSaylan, Mete I.Shirude, ShreyaSchmidt, Maria InesSchneider, Ione J. C.Schneider, Matthew T.Schottker, BenSchutte, Aletta E.Schwebel, David C.Schwendicke, FalkSeedat, SorayaSepanlou, Sadaf G.Servan-Mori, Edson E.Shackelford, Katya AnneShaheen, AmiraShahraz, SaeidShaikh, Masood AliShamsipour, MansourShamsizadeh, MortezaIslam, Sheikh Mohammed SharifulSharma, JayendraSharma, RajeshShe, JunShi, PeilinShibuya, KenjiShields, ChloeShiferaw, Mekonnen SisayShigematsu, MikaShin, Min-JeongShiri, RahmanShirkoohi, RezaShishani, KawkabShoman, HaithamShrime, Mark G.Santos Silva, Diego AugustoSilva, Joao PedroAlves Silveira, Dayane GabrieleSingh, Jasvinder A.Singh, VirendraSinha, Dhirendra NarainSkiadaresi, EiriniSlepak, Erica LeighSligar, AmberSmith, AlisonSmith, David L.Smith, MariSobaih, Badr H. A.Sobngwi, EugeneSoljak, MichaelSoneji, SamirSorensen, Reed J. D.Sposato, Luciano A.Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T.Srinivasan, VinayStanaway, Jeffrey D.Stein, Dan J.Steinke, SabineStokes, Mark AndrewStrub, BryanSufiyan, Muawiyyah BabaleAbdulkader, Rizwan SuliankatchiSunguya, Bruno F.Sur, Patrick J.Swaminathan, SoumyaSykes, Bryan L.Sylte, Dillon O.Szoeke, Cassandra E. I.Tabares-Seisdedos, RafaelTadakamadla, Santosh KumarTandon, NikhilTao, TianchanTarekegn, Yihunie L.Tavakkoli, MohammadTaveira, NunoTegegne, Teketo KassawShifa, Girma TemamTerkawi, Abdullah SuliemanTessema, Gizachew AssefaThakur, J. S.Thankappan, Kavumpurathu RamanThrift, Amanda G.Tiruye, Tenaw YimerTobe-Gai, RuoyanTopor-Madry, RomanTorre, AnnaTortajada, MiguelTran, Bach XuanTroeger, ChristopherTruelsen, ThomasTsoi, DerrickTuem, Kald BeshirTuzcu, Emin MuratTyrovolas, StefanosUkwaja, Kingsley N.Uneke, Chigozie JesseUpdike, RachelUthman, Olalekan A.van Boven, Job F. M.van Donkelaar, AaronVarughese, SantoshVasankari, TommiVenketasubramanian, NarayanaswamyVidavalur, RameshViolante, Francesco S.Vladimirov, Sergey K.Vlassov, Vasiliy VictorovichVollset, Stein EmilVos, TheoWadilo, FisehaWakayo, TolassaWallin, Mitchell T.Wang, Yuan-PangWeichenthal, ScottWeiderpass, ElisabeteWeintraub, Robert G.Weiss, Daniel J.Werdecker, AndreaWesterman, RonnyWhiteford, Harvey A.Wijeratne, TissaWiysonge, Charles SheyWoldeyes, Belete GetahunWolfe, Charles D. A.Woodbrook, RachelXavier, DenisXu, GelinYadgir, SimonYakob, BereketYan, Lijing L.Yano, YuichiroYaseri, MehdiYe, PengpengYimam, Hassen HamidYip, PaulYonemoto, NaohiroYoon, Seok-JunYotebieng, MarcelYounis, Mustafa Z.Zaidi, ZoubidaZaki, Maysaa El SayedZavala-Arciniega, LuisZhang, XueyingZipkin, BenZodpey, SanjayLim, Stephen S.Murray, Christopher J. L.
Issue Date
16-9월-2017
Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
Citation
LANCET, v.390, no.10100, pp.1423 - 1459
Indexed
SCIE
SCOPUS
Journal Title
LANCET
Volume
390
Number
10100
Start Page
1423
End Page
1459
URI
https://scholar.korea.ac.kr/handle/2021.sw.korea/82216
DOI
10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32336-X
ISSN
0140-6736
Abstract
Background The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of "leaving no one behind". Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990-2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030. Methods We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2.5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97.5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment. Findings Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56.7 (IQR 31.9-66.8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86.8, 95% uncertainty interval 84.6-88.9), Iceland (86.0, 84.1-87.6), and Sweden (85.6, 81.8-87.8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10.9, 9.6-11.9), the Central African Republic (11.0, 8.8-13.8), and Somalia (11.3, 9.5-13.1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2-8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60% of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5% of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides an updated and expanded evidence base on where the world currently stands in terms of the health-related SDGs. Our improved measure of UHC offers a basis to monitor the expansion of health services necessary to meet the SDGs. Based on past rates of progress, many places are facing challenges in meeting defined health-related SDG targets, particularly among countries that are the worst off. In view of the early stages of SDG implementation, however, opportunity remains to take actions to accelerate progress, as shown by the catalytic effects of adopting the Millennium Development Goals after 2000. With the SDGs' broader, bolder development agenda, multisectoral commitments and investments are vital to make the health-related SDGs within reach of all populations. Copyright The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article published under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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