한국의 CO₂배출량, 에너지소비, 전력소비 그리고 경제성장

Abstract

We examine dynamic relationships among CO₂emissions, energy consumption, electricity consumption and economic growth in Korea employing a cointegration technique including ARDL bounds test and VECM with exogenous variable for the time period 1971-2010. We consider the share of nuclear energy as an exogenous variable. Cointegration tests demonstrate the existence of long-run relationships among the variables. Our empirical findings show causal relationships from energy (or electricity) consumption to CO₂emissions, and from economic growth to CO₂emissions in the long run with a confirmation of the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis, suggesting the importance of technology development policy to reduce CO₂emissions in energy (or electricity) consumption. Bidirectional short-run causal relationships are found between energy consumption and economic growth, and between CO₂emissions and economic growth, implying the importance of energy saving policy to enhance economic growth. Synthesized results of a unidirectional long-run causality running from economic growth to CO₂emissions indicate that policies restricting CO₂emissions could be implemented without having negative effects on economic growth.