A real option analysis for stochastic disease control and vaccine stockpile policy: An application to H1N1 in Korea
- Authors
- Park, Hojeong
- Issue Date
- 2월-2016
- Publisher
- ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
- Keywords
- Vaccination policy; Real options; Stochastic disease; H1N1
- Citation
- ECONOMIC MODELLING, v.53, pp.187 - 194
- Indexed
- SSCI
SCOPUS
- Journal Title
- ECONOMIC MODELLING
- Volume
- 53
- Start Page
- 187
- End Page
- 194
- URI
- https://scholar.korea.ac.kr/handle/2021.sw.korea/89693
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.econmod.2015.12.005
- ISSN
- 0264-9993
- Abstract
- Vaccination is mostly used for controlling the diffusion of an infectious disease. This paper attempts to bridge a gap between economic model and epidemiological model to analyze the optimal vaccination strategy when the diffusion of pandemic disease follows a stochastic process. Impulsive vaccination is considered as an effective option to control an infectious disease. A real option model under stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) environment is developed to examine the optimal vaccination threshold when the social costs and benefits of vaccination efforts are considered. A numerical illustration is provided for the case of H1N1 in Korea to show the herd immunity level as a policy rule to suppress epidemic. Policy implications are discussed regarding the vaccine stockpile as a countermeasure to epidemic diffusion. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Collections - College of Life Sciences and Biotechnology > Department of Food and Resource Economics > 1. Journal Articles
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