Scenario Analysis of Fertility in Korea using the Fertility Rate Prediction Model

Abstract

The low fertility rate and the unprecedented rapid pace of population aging is a significant factor degrading the national competitiveness and the social security system of Korea. The government has implemented various maternity incentives to alleviate the low birth problem; however, the policy seems in effective to solve the problem of low fertility. This study proposes a conditional birth-order specific fertility rate and investigates the policy effects of fertility transition in Korea to provide a basis for more effective policy development. The use of a conditional birth-order specific fertility rate allows for an effective calculation of the change and the effect in total fertility rate than a birth-order specific fertility rate. We compare the effects of the total fertility rate according to various scenarios that enables us to calculate how the total fertility rate can achieve the current multi-child childbirth support policy of the government and estimate how the total fertility rate can be achieved when focusing on the first or second childbirth support policy. We also summarize the research results on policy development for a practical increase in the childbirth that considers the rapid decrease in women of childbearing age (15-49 years) due to continued low fertility and present the number of childbirths in accordance with the total fertility rate.