시스템 다이내믹스를 이용한 신두리 해안사구의 보전방안

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyze the land-use changes in the coastal areas using system dynamics modeling and to provide directions for effective management to maintain coastal dune areas. This research process consists of four steps: First, we built the basic model based on the causal loop diagram which was analyzed the land-use change of Sindu-ri Coastal Dune. Second, a time series land-use change map using Arc Map was established. Third, the validity of the basic model was tested. Finally, three simulations were performed for the cut over area(100,000㎡/y, 150,000㎡/y, 200,000㎡/y) of windbreak for maintaining the coastal dune areas. Simulation of the basic model showed that the area of the coastal dune will be consistently decreased. Based on the simulation, if windbreak were cut down 150,000 ㎡/y, windbreak area will be restored to the target area in 2019. This study has the limitation which the simulation is progressed with a limited variable: area. Therefore, the modeling of coastal dune should be reflected various variables in the further study.