Growth slowdowns redux

Abstract

We analyze the incidence and correlates of growth slowdowns in fast-growing middle-income countries, extending the analysis of an earlier paper (Eichengreen et al., 2012a). We continue to find dispersion in the per capita income at which slowdowns occur. But in contrast to our earlier analysis which pointed to the existence of a single mode at which slowdowns occur, in the neighborhood of $15,000-16,000 2005 purchasing power parity dollars, new data suggest the possibility of two modes, one at $10,000-11,000 and another at $15,000-16,000. A number of countries appear to have experienced two slowdowns, consistent with the existence of multiple modes. We suggest that growth in middle-income countries may slow down in a succession of stages rather than at a single point in time. This implies that a larger group of countries is at risk of a growth slowdown and that middle-income countries may find themselves slowing down at lower income levels than implied by our earlier estimates. We also find that slowdowns are less likely in countries where the population has a relatively high level of secondary and tertiary education and where high-technology products accounts for a relatively large share of exports, consistent with our earlier emphasis of the importance of moving up the technology ladder in order to avoid the middle-income trap. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.