Using scenarios to understand the frontiers of IS

Abstract

As we arrive at the millenium, the literature is filled with predictions and forecasts of the state of affairs in the 21st century. Most of these forecasts are single point prognoses. This paper uses scenario-building ideas to describe a richer set of possible states of Information Systems in the year 2010. The scenarios are integrative and consider a set of possible events and their impacts. Two major driving forces: (1) telecommunications development and (2) social acceptance of information systems (IS) are assumed to define the scenario space. Based on these driving forces, four scenarios are created: Utopian, Dystopian, Status Quo, and Technology. The Utopian (ubiquitous telecommunications, high social acceptance of IS) and Dystopian (limited gains in telecommunications, low social acceptance of IS) scenarios are described in detail. The scenarios provide a basis for assessing the frontiers of information systems.