The Devil Is in the Specificity: The Negative Effect of Prediction Specificity on Prediction Accuracy
- Authors
- Yoon, Song-Oh; Suk, Kwanho; Goo, Jin Kyung; Lee, Jiheon; Lee, Seon Min
- Issue Date
- 7월-2013
- Publisher
- SAGE PUBLICATIONS INC
- Keywords
- prediction specificity; prediction accuracy; decision under uncertainty; deliberation; decision making; prediction
- Citation
- PSYCHOLOGICAL SCIENCE, v.24, no.7, pp.1164 - 1170
- Indexed
- SSCI
SCOPUS
- Journal Title
- PSYCHOLOGICAL SCIENCE
- Volume
- 24
- Number
- 7
- Start Page
- 1164
- End Page
- 1170
- URI
- https://scholar.korea.ac.kr/handle/2021.sw.korea/102927
- DOI
- 10.1177/0956797612468760
- ISSN
- 0956-7976
- Abstract
- In the research reported here, we proposed and demonstrated the prediction-specificity effect, which states that people's prediction of the general outcome of an event (e.g., the winner of a soccer match) is less accurate when the prediction question is framed in a more specific manner (e.g., guessing the score) rather than in a less specific manner (e.g., guessing the winner). We demonstrated this effect by examining people's predictions on actual sports games both in field and laboratory studies. In Study 1, the analysis of 19 billion bets from a commercial sports-betting business provided evidence for the effect of prediction specificity. This effect was replicated in three controlled laboratory studies, in which participants predicted the outcomes of a series of soccer matches. Furthermore, the negative effect of prediction specificity was mediated by participants' underweighting of important holistic information during decision making.
- Files in This Item
- There are no files associated with this item.
- Appears in
Collections - Korea University Business School > Department of Business Administration > 1. Journal Articles
![qrcode](https://api.qrserver.com/v1/create-qr-code/?size=55x55&data=https://scholar.korea.ac.kr/handle/2021.sw.korea/102927)
Items in ScholarWorks are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.